Dean asked for my impressions, since I'd been talking to all the teams in the clue.
The short version, the mouse team probably isn't Peridot. They made a slip up in their voting—both their knight and the hero playing from their team voted in the suspicion round, and on different people—and that doesn't feel like a move you make when you're well informed and plotting with other teams. Especially not if you're going to draw attention to yourselves by asking other people about their voting.
For the time being, I'd call them lowest threat.
My preference is to have both Coral and Tiger's Eye in the elimination poll. Both of them are big teams, they have a lot of people playing, so it's more likely someone will slip up under pressure and out themselves.
Between the two... if I had to pick right now, I'd pick Coral. It's a weird move to ask about people's voting in round one, but not volunteer your own vote. Also weird that with so many people playing, they didn't vote at all. That's the sort of thing that could be to their advantage in the future. Of the two teams, I'd say they were the most defensive when I asked them to talk in private.
It's not a sure thing. Tiger's Eye's also been a little defensive, and not all of their logic has scanned. They're also a team I don't particularly know. However, if they are mice, they're doing the better job of playing natural with it.
I'm still drawing things out with them to see how they react, or if Coral will give me something more concrete to work with, hence the secrecy.
Coral and Peridot are the two I've been watching most. Mostly because they're been the most active. Peridot was quick to defend Turquoise and to offer strategies. But Coral has played this game before and both Shark and Kaitou are very clever. It's not strange for Coral to refuse to vote, given their style. Then again, in a lighter game, Coral can be more competitive. And Kaitou has been quick to offer his own strategies.
What you said about Briar slipping up could go either way. Teams and knights don't always stay on the same page.
Tiger's Eye is the group I'm the least familiar with.
Like I said, Peridot's not a sure thing, just low priority. Anyone can slip up. This just feels more like the kind of slip up you make with less information and less of a plan, not more.
I can't say for Coral, but Amethyst is playing to win. I don't see any reason to assume everyone isn't doing the same.
[pausing]
You know anything on Turquoise? That's not a team I know either. We voted on them, but that was more or less luck the first time out.
This game... has a reputation. The previous one killed the teams that got voted out. Violently. Coral was there so they may have reservations. I know Sapphire may have refused to vote for similar reasons. But... this version is different so... it's hard to say.
Turquoise can be clever. Hail gets really into the games especially. She was the same last time. Harder to tell with Naoto since he was more interested in the house. I admit I feel the same way as him.
That's usually how it works. Chances are there's at least one experienced team on the mouse's side. Either Coral, Ruby, Turquoise or Kunzite. Then again, Jasper and Briar catch onto things quickly and enjoy challenges like this. Briar's good at getting to the front of things.
But Peridot's been singled out in the poll so far, which could also be wolves at work.
My only skepticism about the wolves controlling the first poll is that it's very likely they wouldn't have to. Everyone was picking more or less at random, avoiding their friends. The wolves could easily have sat back and let us do their work for them.
They were the first to do a double-vote. He said it was better than a coin toss from several one-votes. Maybe. But it wouldn't lessen our chance of voting out "children" either.
It's true, and I've considered it. Like I said, in the end I'm skeptical the wolves would have to do that. People voting randomly, you might get some teams with two votes on them. The wolves could have hidden their votes, either by not voting, or by putting one vote on other teams.
For the mice... I don't know that they gain by putting up the first double vote. They already stand to benefit from a tie. It doesn't do that much to protect themselves.
That only makes sense if they have someone to protect. In an eight way tie..? Not so much unless we'd tagged at least two of the mouse teams. Even then, the odds are in their favor. Why stand out?
I'm not saying they're safe, but until they're in a clue or do something less easily explained by chance... they're low on my priority list.
![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
no subject
Dean asked for my impressions, since I'd been talking to all the teams in the clue.
The short version, the mouse team probably isn't Peridot. They made a slip up in their voting—both their knight and the hero playing from their team voted in the suspicion round, and on different people—and that doesn't feel like a move you make when you're well informed and plotting with other teams. Especially not if you're going to draw attention to yourselves by asking other people about their voting.
For the time being, I'd call them lowest threat.
My preference is to have both Coral and Tiger's Eye in the elimination poll. Both of them are big teams, they have a lot of people playing, so it's more likely someone will slip up under pressure and out themselves.
Between the two... if I had to pick right now, I'd pick Coral. It's a weird move to ask about people's voting in round one, but not volunteer your own vote. Also weird that with so many people playing, they didn't vote at all. That's the sort of thing that could be to their advantage in the future. Of the two teams, I'd say they were the most defensive when I asked them to talk in private.
It's not a sure thing. Tiger's Eye's also been a little defensive, and not all of their logic has scanned. They're also a team I don't particularly know. However, if they are mice, they're doing the better job of playing natural with it.
I'm still drawing things out with them to see how they react, or if Coral will give me something more concrete to work with, hence the secrecy.
Now you know what I've got.
no subject
What you said about Briar slipping up could go either way. Teams and knights don't always stay on the same page.
Tiger's Eye is the group I'm the least familiar with.
no subject
I can't say for Coral, but Amethyst is playing to win. I don't see any reason to assume everyone isn't doing the same.
[pausing]
You know anything on Turquoise? That's not a team I know either. We voted on them, but that was more or less luck the first time out.
no subject
This game... has a reputation. The previous one killed the teams that got voted out. Violently. Coral was there so they may have reservations. I know Sapphire may have refused to vote for similar reasons. But... this version is different so... it's hard to say.
Turquoise can be clever. Hail gets really into the games especially. She was the same last time. Harder to tell with Naoto since he was more interested in the house. I admit I feel the same way as him.
no subject
And I can't blame anyone for that.
Do you think Turquoise was right about the wolves controlling who went up in the poll, then?
no subject
But Peridot's been singled out in the poll so far, which could also be wolves at work.
no subject
My only skepticism about the wolves controlling the first poll is that it's very likely they wouldn't have to. Everyone was picking more or less at random, avoiding their friends. The wolves could easily have sat back and let us do their work for them.
no subject
In general, I'm unsure about how defensive Hail was, but that's also her personality. She just seemed really affronted about being chosen.
no subject
no subject
no subject
no subject
They were the first to do a double-vote. He said it was better than a coin toss from several one-votes. Maybe. But it wouldn't lessen our chance of voting out "children" either.
no subject
For the mice... I don't know that they gain by putting up the first double vote. They already stand to benefit from a tie. It doesn't do that much to protect themselves.
no subject
no subject
I'm not saying they're safe, but until they're in a clue or do something less easily explained by chance... they're low on my priority list.
no subject
no subject
no subject
no subject
no subject
no subject
no subject
no subject
(no subject)
(no subject)
(no subject)
(no subject)
(no subject)
(no subject)
(no subject)
(no subject)
(no subject)
(no subject)
no subject
no subject